The Russian reaction to the Nile water crisis during the UN Security Council session Discussion Last Thursday, raised questions about the reasons for the absence of Moscow’s support for Cairo.
Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, announced in the extraordinary session called by Egypt and Sudan, its support for Ethiopia’s position on the Renaissance Dam crisis.
permanent letter Russia’s representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzia, rejected the threatening messages from Egypt and Sudan. He stressed that his country will not allow any military action against Ethiopia, and that it is concerned about the rhetoric of the growing threat in the crisis.
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The Russian position comes despite the good relations with Cairo since then coup Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who visited Moscow repeatedly and awarded its companies giant projects, the most important of which are Dabaa nuclear power plant It was built by his counterpart Vladimir Putin as well Su-35 fighter deal.
In response to the Russian delegate, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told Egyptian TV on Saturday: “Maybe he will talk to Ethiopia about their threats to fill the dam and protect it from hypothetical danger.”
The Ethiopians responded by praising the Russian position. At the meeting of the joint military technical committee between the two countries in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian Minister of Defense announced, Marta Luigi confirmed that Moscow supports her country in various international issues and forums, including AlNahda dam File, thanked Putin.
In an interview with Arab21Mamdouh Mounir, director of the International Institute for Political and Strategic Sciences, said: “The Russian position on the Renaissance Dam crisis is old, and they are more keen on their relationship with Ethiopia than their relationship with Egypt.”
“They are well aware that the American influence on Egypt does not give them enough space to control it, while the great Chinese support for Ethiopia and the Sino-Russian consensus give Moscow greater opportunities to strengthen its presence in the Horn of Africa.”
The Egyptian expert added: “Moscow is good at playing between the big players, Washington and Beijing, and is trying to find a way between them, often towards China.”
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Mounir added that “politics is a game of interests and pressure cards, and Cairo does not hold any Russian pressure cards or interests affected by its bias towards Ethiopia.”
Munir expressed his belief that “the Russian anger towards Sudan is over.” Naval base It does not have a great impact because Russia knows very well that its position will not change anything in the equation with the presence of China or Washington. Therefore, I preferred to bet on the winning Ethiopian horse instead of Cairo, which lost its water rights in the Declaration of Principles on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam agreement.”
historical and political
Writer and political analyst Dr. Ashraf Al-Sabbagh says that the transformation in Russia came as a result of “historical, ideological and political” reasons.
pointed to Arab21: “Russia is not the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991, and for the past 30 years, the Russian Federation has been ruled by extreme right-wing nationalists who have developed for it a new combative, strategic and social doctrine, far from the remaining theoretical model of the Soviet Union.”
He added that “Russia, as a major nuclear power and a permanent member of the Security Council, has its interests and is not shy about selling weapons, wheat and wires, and taking care of its interests.”
The far-right nationalist leadership in Russia did not forget to expel Russian experts in 1972 and Cairo signed the Camp David Accords Without Moscow.
Russia has understood that the West is not satisfied with the way Sisi came to power, and this is where the desires of Cairo and Moscow are linked. Moscow stated that it will stand by Cairo in confronting the West in the files of democracy, freedoms, human rights and civil society, and that it will support the ruling regime as long as there is hostility between it and the West.
He added that “the cooperation of the two parties came on the basis of hostility to the West, but the Russian side expressed its desire to acquire military bases and facilities and build infrastructure, railways, roads and bridges.”
“Moscow wanted to control Egypt, even in terms of exporting weapons, fighters, and missiles. Russia pushed its media to launch a campaign on rapprochement and strategic relations in order to drive a wedge between Egypt and the West, isolate Cairo, and deal with it. As Damascus deals with Tehran.”
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Al-Sabbagh added: “The volume of economic exchange between them is very weak. They added the prices of weapons to make it look bigger than it is, but Russia receives only a few tons of potatoes and vegetables from Egypt.” It can be obtained from Turkey, Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Uzbekistan.”
On the repercussions of the Russian delegate’s speech at the United Nations, Al-Sabbagh said: “They hope to open investments to the Russians, and they hope to establish military bases there, after Russia’s failure to establish bases in Egypt, Djibouti and Sudan.
He stressed that “Moscow has indications of a Western tendency to settle the dam file, and there is a rapprochement between Cairo, Western capitals and Washington, so Russia began to oppose everything and stand by those opposed to the Western desire.”
“Russian state media is pouring oil on the fire and provoking Ethiopian public opinion, as Egyptian statements are highlighted in provocative formulas to portray the discourse of the growing Egyptian threat.”
He explained that Moscow is trying to maintain relations with Egypt by showing flexibility in useless and non-urgent files, being tough on important files, and taking malicious positions that include forms of pressure and bargaining.
He also noted that Russia “is also trying to maintain relations with Ethiopia and give it a Russian media platform, based on the possibility of gaining any interest from it and using it in its conflicts with the Americans and Europeans.”
“In light of Moscow’s attempts to maintain balanced relations with Cairo and Addis Ababa, it has not forgotten to drive the wedge between Cairo and Washington, Cairo and Brussels, and to seek military facilities that have been rejected more than once. However, Moscow is maneuvering and insisting through many channels and exchanging files with others.”
Al-Sabbagh believes that “the positions of the Americans and Europeans on the dam crisis are more moderate and logical than those of Russia and China.”
Russian base in Sudan
And about the impact of Sudan’s freezing of the agreement to allow the establishment of a Russian military base in the Red Sea after American pressure, the Russian expert said: “This base was a conspiracy by Russia that took advantage of the conditions of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and his bad relations with the West.”
He adds: “As usual, Moscow pushed its media to launch campaigns of confusion, exaggeration and misinformation to drive a wedge between Sudan and the West. Al-Bashir was overthrown, and Russia did not fulfill its promises to protect him. Therefore, Khartoum began to reconsider its relations with all countries of the world.”
He does not believe that there is American or European pressure on Sudan. These are major interests, and Sudan has the right to decide its own destiny and adhere to the interests of its people.
This article first appeared in Arabic on Arab21 On July 11, 2021