Only 20 of the 400 climate scenarios examined were in 2018 United Nations Climate Report It will have a realistic chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. New study Find.
why does it matter: The study, conducted by more than a dozen researchers from around the world, showed that even the scenarios they identified would still need to use at least one technology to reduce carbon emissions at a level they classify as “difficult”.
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The Big Picture: Many of the scenarios used in the UN study relied heavily on the use of technologies that pull carbon out of the air and store it permanently on the ground.
However, this decarbonization technique is not yet widely available, making relying on it a “silver bullet,” the study says, extremely risky.
How it works: The study, led by Lila Warszawski of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), used current research to determine whether using a particular “lever” to reduce emissions by mid-century would be “reasonable”, “difficult” or “speculative.”
They have mapped the emission reduction potential for each of these levers, which includes everything from decarbonizing electricity generation to making deep cuts in energy demand and shifting ecosystems from net carbon sources to carbon sinks.
what are they saying: “The necessary emission reductions are difficult to achieve, technically but also politically,” said co-author Johan Rockstrom of PIK, in a statement. “They require unprecedented lifestyle innovation and international cooperation.”
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