The estimates, included in the paper, along with the recommendations, come at a time when the Biden administration faces mounting pressure to facilitate a fair distribution of the vaccine around the world. The United States pledged money to the global vaccination effort, but has resisted calls to share vaccine technology or donate surplus doses.
On Thursday, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken organized a fundraising event for Covax, a WHO-backed campaign to distribute coronavirus vaccines, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, and called on other countries to do more.
Covax aims to secure and distribute enough vaccine to reach up to 20 percent of the population in 92 participating target countries by the end of 2021. In February, Biden the White House Pledge Support of up to $ 4 billion, reflecting the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw.
In a hypothetical event on Thursday, Blinken urged countries to offer more, saying an additional $ 2 billion could help Covax reach 30 percent, instead of 20 percent, of its target population this year. “Think for a moment about all the people whose lives will be affected by hitting this higher goal.” He said.
The foreign minister said countries should support vaccine manufacturing, but declined to announce any specific policies or plans. He did not address the issue of excess doses in the United States.
Oxfam released a letter on Wednesday signed by more than 100 former heads of state and Nobel laureates President Biden assigns intellectual property Coronavirus vaccine rules and “placing the collective right to safety for all before the commercial monopolies of the few.”
“Leadership from the United States on safe, effective and equitable global access to Covid-19 vaccines is imperative,” argues the Duke paper, prompting Washington to increase funding for vaccine-sharing programs, donate overdoses, and use its influence to open up to vaccine manufacture.
Another suggestion, was brought up at e-mail With support from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), he calls on the United States to donate 10 percent of its overdoses during the summer, moving to 50 percent by the end of the year, and argues that Biden should deliver a speech like this spring to bring the case to the American people.
Under the leadership of Gail Smith, Blinken’s New Coordinator for the World Corona Virus Health response and security, the non-profit organization ONE Campaign is calling on rich countries to donate 5 percent of their excess doses once 20 percent of their population is vaccinated.
The proposals come right after the United States Exceeded 20 percent target – With the virus spreading uncontrollably in much of the world, the most virulent variants continue to be under control.
The United States will likely have “at least 300 million overdoses or more” by the end of July, estimate the Duke authors, even as vaccination programs are extended to the vast majority of American children.
The estimate is based on the assumption that a vaccine developed by AstraZeneca receives permission for emergency use and that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is widely used, despite rare side effects.
US oversupply is a stark contrast to the situation in many poor parts of the world, where vaccination programs have been slow to start amid supply and distribution problems, and the epidemic could eventually be prolonged and impede the US recovery.
The Biden administration pledged to donate doses. “If we had a surplus, we would share it with the rest of the world,” Biden said He said last month, When you press the issue. “We’ll start making sure to take care of the Americans first, but then we’ll try to help the rest of the world.” Blinken made it clear that protecting Americans requires international action. “This epidemic will not end at home until it ends all over the world,” he said He said at a press conference On April 5th, however, no global dose donation plan has been identified.
The world’s 92nd poorest countries will not be able to reach a vaccination rate of 60 percent of their population until 2023 “or after” if current distribution trends continue, according to estimates from the Duke paper.
The authors include former US officials such as Mark McClellan, who served as a commissioner for the Food and Drug Administration under President George W. Bush, as well as Krishna Udiakumar, founding director of the Duke Global Center for Health Innovation.
Their recommendations reflect the concerns of other public health experts around the world, including WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who described vaccine distribution plans that focus only on local issues as a “useless strategy.” [that] It will cost lives and livelihoods. “
In February, French President Emmanuel Macron urged the United States and Europe to donate up to 5% Guaranteed vaccine doses, Although the idea has not gained much momentum.
Even if Covax were fully funded this year, it would only be able to vaccinate a quarter of the population in the world’s 92 poor countries, according to Duke magazine.
Although many experts say the United States needs to do more to ensure the developing world can get vaccinated faster, they differ in approach.
While the letter from Oxfam called for the United States to support the temporary waiver of intellectual property rules to the World Trade Organization and break the vaccine monopolies, Duke experts argued that such a measure was unnecessary and could be messy.
Instead, they suggest that the United States should support the use of cooperative licensing arrangements to increase manufacturing capacity, so that production can be increased quickly but safely.
Duke’s authors also state that although US contracts with drug manufacturers may restrict donations to overdoses, the Biden administration could amend its contracts and could provide “loans” for currently available vaccine doses (as it has done with Mexico and Canada). It could also change the timing of delivery of vaccines so that countries most in need receive their doses first.
Both the Duke and CSIS proposals indicated that although the AstraZeneca vaccine does not have approval for emergency use in the United States, it can be used in other countries. The United States has purchased 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine alone.
This report has been updated.