Sullivan says ISIS poses a “severe” threat to US evacuation efforts in Kabul

A deadly attack on American and Afghan civilians would be a disaster not only for the United States, but also for the Taliban, who are moving to consolidate their control over Kabul. The Taliban and the Islamic State have enemies, fighting each other on the battlefield for control of parts of the country.

Western counterterrorism analysts say a high-profile ISIS attack during the evacuation would likely boost the group’s declining fortunes, recruitment and prestige.

a UN report In June, I assessed that “the territorial losses sustained by the Islamic State have affected the organization’s ability to recruit and generate new funding.”

Although the ISIS branch is still believed to have 1,500 to 2,200 fighters in small areas of Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, the report said, “It has been forced to decentralize and consists mainly of cells and small groups across the country, acting in an independent manner. While we share the same ideology”.

As the group suffered military setbacks beginning in the summer of 2018, the report concluded that since June 2020, under its ambitious new leader, Shihab al-Muhajir, the branch “remains active and dangerous,” and has sought to inflate its ranks with disaffected Taliban fighters. and other militants.

“Given that ISIS-K and the Taliban are enemies, it will be a challenge for ISIS-K,” said Mr. Clark. “However, the Taliban now has their full hand in governance, which will consume significant bandwidth within the organization.”

Nathan Sales, the State Department’s coordinator for counterterrorism in the Trump administration, said Sunday that if the ISIS branch is able to attack Kabul airport, “it indicates that Afghanistan after the US withdrawal will be a permissive environment for all kinds of terrorist groups, even those hostile to the Taliban.”