It resembles Germany from the late nineteenth century in many crucial ways, particularly in being a place where a kind of “national” identity has long coexisted alongside massive political division.
Today the European Union stands as a kind of entity that is more than an economic bloc but less than a full political union, like the German Confederation after Napoleon. There are of course differences that include specific national identities that are still well established, Economic differences Between the different regions, outside influence tries to keep the region divided and such. But there are also tremendous advantages, the first of which is of course the fact that The dominant Western elite wants federalism In order to allow the European Union to become a true global political giant in its own right that is on the same level as the United States and China.
Today we are also witnessing the rise of genuine pan-European forms of nationalism on the rise. Basically of two types, one of which is the most liberal variety relentlessly pushed by the institution and the latter is ethnic variety It was seen in different identity groups. Although they differ in many ways, the former being pushed by those in power and the latter by groups that aspire to power, they converge around the same ultimate goal of European unity. If the institutional form of European liberal nationalism continues to fail to garner mass support for the push for federalism, it is not at all unlikely that parts of the establishment will defect and attempt to use European ethno-nationalism as an ideological justification for mobilizing the people. masses for unification. This scenario is most likely taking into account The fast pace at which Western European politics was moving right Since the 2015 migrant crisis, however, one thing to keep in mind is that both forms of these European nationalities are mainly found in the West, so the reactions and developments in the East will be interesting to say the least.
All this comes against the background of the retreat of individual European countries on the world stage. Today, France, Germany, or Italy are greatly dwarfed by the United States or a rising China, creating geopolitical pressures that have helped them move closer to union.
Possible unification scenarios and similarities with German unification
As mentioned above, despite the massive complementarity between the elites of the various European countries, there is still an economic division between North and South and a more political division between West and East. This could make the union very weak and prone to collapse, especially considering potential outside interference to stop any federation. A scenario in which the United States tries to exploit the divisions between West and East to make countries like Poland torpedo an entire federation is not at all unlikely. Taking into account in particular that a united Europe would be a power in its own right, separate from the United States, significantly reducing the global influence of the latter. This is something the US leadership will certainly not accept as the current arrangement where a united Europe loosely dominates the ideal scenario for Washington, DC.
Taking into account the above points, the scenario I find particularly likely is that at first there will be a federation of old “Frankish Europe” as in the territories of the former Carolingian Empire. This is especially likely if the Brussels institution becomes desperate over time, but the divisions between North and South, West and East turn out to be unbridgeable for the time being. This “core” Europe, which should consist of Germany, the Low Countries, France and possibly Scandinavia, could play the role of Prussia, expanding mainly south and east over time. German unification that occurred in the nineteenth century was an event of Prussian expansion, with Prussia expelling Austria and then proceeding to seize smaller states in northern and southern Germany under its auspices and justified by the ideological banner of German nationalism. Something similar could happen here even though future scenarios are not completely predictable.
One of the very important things you can see is that the whole of southern Euterpe is willing to be absorbed by any “less” federation, especially if the issue of fiscal union with the North is resolved and France is, in fact, a question Sub-Saharan Climate Migration. The South would be directly threatened by this and likely become desperate to help the North turn the tide.
The geopolitical potential of the European Union
Any European Union would be demographically strong, whether equal or ahead of the United States, and only behind China, which has entered demographic stagnation as it has, and economically declining India. It also has strong military assets including nuclear weapons in France and huge potential to strengthen them.
It is hard to argue that any potential European federation, especially if the entire union were united, would be anything less than a great power. It will also be under the banner of ideological European nationalism has the potential to absorb countries such as Norway and Serbia eventually. In a possible post-Putin scenario in which the Russian regime and ruling elite become more amenable to Western Europe, there will still be a possibility that Russia may also be accommodated, which would almost certainly see Europe stronger than the United States or China. A state from “Dublin to Vladivostok”, as unlikely as it is today, is still quite unlikely and has the potential to be the first world power. This kind of space that can be easily expanded is not something the United States or China has.
It must also be remembered that climate change will help Europe geopolitically, primarily by inflicting serious damage on the countries of the South while enhancing the image of those in places like North Euterpe. Not Only Russia which is set to be a beneficiary of climate change.
In terms of spheres of influence, North Africa or the Maghreb would almost certainly fall under the influence of any European federation. Sub-Saharan Climate Migration My presence will threaten the countries here As I’ve written here before, they are therefore likely to turn to help from the northern Mediterranean to stem the migration.