Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan – Are We On the Brink of War? Political geography


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As you know, the last round of talks about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Kinshasa Failure And things just don’t look very pretty. There have been border skirmishes going on between Sudan and Ethiopia MomentarilyHowever, this appears to be taking place on the sidelines of the exhibition where the Grand Prix is ​​the main performance.

In the past ten days, the Egyptian president has spoken on two occasions about this issue, and each time he has raised his tone and used clearer words, saying to a large extent that Egypt has always preferred the path of peace and negotiations, but The Nile is untouchable. In the Egyptian media and public conversations on the Internet, Ethiopia has become completely demonized, and many people, including intellectuals, artists and prominent personalities, are calling for an attack on the dam site. These calls for war are not the usual loyalists of the militarily-minded Sisi. This time the issue took center stage nationwide. I know this because I am writing these words from Cairo. This is becoming more and more important every day with the second phase of filling the dam being set in around 80 days.

I would like to discuss the following points if anyone is interested. Bear in mind that I am asking these questions based on the assumption that the dam is indeed causing the damage that Egypt claims. I make the following points for discussion from a geopolitical perspective, not from a moral or ethical perspective. None of the following is to be understood as an attack on any Ethiopian or encourage violence against Ethiopia or Ethiopians in any way.

  • What are the alternatives to Egypt in the absence of an agreement? Is this worth the war for?

  • Ethiopia could build another dam, and you will be motivated to do so

  • The dam is very difficult to destroy. Egypt would need to deliver a large payload to cause any meaningful damage to the mammoth hull

  • Failed first strike will be devastating to Egypt. All condemnation and none of the dam

  • Ethiopia reiterates that the only solution is through direct talks with Ethiopia, not the United States

  • If Egypt attacked, it would lose any future it could have in Africa, leaders and peoples alike

  • If Egypt does not attack and Ethiopia proceeds as planned, what will happen next, assuming that this causes serious problems in the downstream water supply?

  • If Egypt attacked, Sudan was supposed to be on board. Does this mean a ground invasion or bombing of the dam from the other side? Is this possible even geographically?

  • How will other countries participate, if any?

  • How will the African Union respond?

Let’s talk about this.

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