Amid all the talk of early elections this fall, it is unwise to ignore the potential size of the Scottish National Party’s victory in Scotland. All recent polls show the SNP will get more seats: not as high as 56 of the 59 they won in 2015, but are on their way to easily over 40, leaving the other parties behind.
These numbers will have a significant impact on the odds of both the Conservatives and Labor winning a majority in the House of Commons, as the Scottish National Party is currently the third largest party.
SNP is Currently, voter turnout is around 40% for the Westminster elections. The Scottish Labor Party is suffering a freefall under Richard Leonard’s lackluster leadership, and is now less than 20% – as is the Scottish Conservative Party. This makes it impossible for Labor to win the twenty seats in Scotland it needs to gain a majority in the House of Commons; In fact, she will struggle to keep the seven she won in 2017.
Now, we don’t know how many centrist and anti-UK Boris voters would turn into the Liberal Democrats (who did well in Scotland in the European elections and now have a young Scottish leader) but it’s entirely possible that the LDs will win two more seats, most likely from rural conservatives Agriculture will be hit hard by the lack of a bargain Brixi.
And with these survey numbers, it’s hard to see the Scottish Conservatives sticking to their current tally of 13 Scottish seats: the conflicts and contradictions between Ruth Davidson, a strong Brexit advocate who built the Conservative Party renaissance by attracting centrist voters, and Johnson critically important.
While there are pockets of strong pro-Brexit sentiment in Scotland, there are not enough votes in favor of Brexit here to make a difference in seats that have surpassed first place other than in northeast Scotland, and possibly in the regions Rural southwest – where the Conservatives already have MPs. (This is also the case with Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party, the Brexit party has no chance of winning the seat of Westminster in Scotland.)
And if the Scottish National Party cleans up the north of the border, the constitutional crisis over Brexit will be exacerbated by a constitutional crisis over the independence of Scotland.