Biden’s attempt to save the Iran deal is in its final stages


But time may run out for a meaningful opening with Iran. The comprehensive US sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on the Iranian economy remain in place. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime continues to enrich uranium at higher levels than stipulated in the 2015 deal, which Tehran says the United States canceled first. In public, both sides continue to wait for the other to prove their goodwill with the “You, First” rhetoric. My colleagues Karen Deung and Karim Fahim wrote Earlier this week.

“We can go tomorrow,” a senior administration official told them. “But we will not cut straight.”

In the background, though, there are growing questions about either side’s appetite for a de facto new solution. The White House is concerned about the potential reaction in both Washington and some parts of the Middle East if it makes concessions to Iran. Its slow approach to the situation has alarmed some rapprochement advocates, who recognize the need to “move quickly” before conditions become unfavorable for diplomacy. But she was welcomed by unlikely figures like Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former Middle East envoy, who praised Biden in A recent opinion article To call it “Iran hoax”.

Iran may not be bluffing. Although the country’s economy has been hit hard by the sanctions, the system itself has been hit It has proven to be relatively flexible. The upcoming elections in June are expected to result in a government that is much tougher than the one currently in place – which may complicate the Biden administration’s stated desire not only to return Iran to the nuclear deal, but also to expand the discussion to other issues such as Iran’s use of proxy forces in the Middle East and its program. Ballistic missiles and political hostage taking.

Vali Nasr, Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Told Today’s Worldview that the longer the impasse continues, “the more the Iranians reach the conclusion that the United States is not ready to ease the sanctions.”

at Interview with Politico this weekIran’s Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, has said that Iran will study other US concerns once Washington lifts sanctions related to the nuclear deal, but indicated that the scenario is not soon. What we see as American policy is exactly the same as the Trump administration. “We have not seen any change in the policy,” he said.

Biden officials assert that this is not the case. Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign” has failed … and it must be a thing of the past, in the words of Robert Malley, the administration’s special envoy to Iran, For BBC Persian service on Thursday.

He said that the administration wants “to reach a position in which the United States can lift sanctions again and Iran can return to compliance with its nuclear obligations under the agreement.” Mali added that the Biden administration has been open to talks with the Iranians about moving forward, but not necessarily in the order that Tehran wants – with sanctions being lifted first.

Mali said the diplomatic process “is not that easy.” “It’s not like I turned on the light switch.”

In a separate interview, Mali indicated that the Iranian elections We were not studying the accounts of the United States. But they are more likely to influence those who belong to the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who may seek to change the guard. “Khamenei is concerned that early economic openness could divert the tide of public opinion in favor of the moderate reformist camp by giving hope to the Iranian people.” Note a report published by the Atlantic Council. Whereas, for the time being, the turnout for the presidential election on June 18 appears to be the same Historically lowThe breakthrough with the United States has the ability to translate it into a larger offer that would work against Khamenei’s plan to appoint a hardliner to the presidential office. “

Amid an intoxicating talk in Iran about the relative success of The “resistance” economy that violates the regime’s sanctionsSome analysts suggest that the United States’ influence over Iran may diminish in the coming months. “Conservatives allied with the Supreme Leader are determined to prove to the West and their domestic opponents that Iran will continue to challenge American hegemony in its neighborhood, regardless of sanctions and maximum pressure.” Jawad Salehi Isfahani books, Professor of Economics at Virginia Tech. “If anything, as this group argues, sanctions will help Iran reduce its dependence on oil and the West.”

Iran’s skeptics in the West do not have much of a stake in Iran’s domestic politics theater. But their enemies in Iran make similar claims. Nasr said, “Many people in Washington think that it does not matter who wins the Iranian elections.” “Ironically, many in Tehran say the same thing about the United States.”

Progressives in Washington Patience is running out as Biden is perceived slowing down in Iran It regrets the administration’s decision to bomb Iranian proxies in Syria in response to the alleged Iranian-related attacks on US sites in Iraq. Some Biden administration officials “seem to have bought the argument that Trump’s sanctions give us leverage that we can use to obtain concessions from the Iranians,” said Joe Sirinción, former head of the Plowshares Fund, a nonproliferation group, Left-leaning Jewish currents.

But the current stage of escalation – and from it Attacks escalate From the Houthis linked to Iran in Yemen – makes future talks more complicated. “The dilemma for the Biden team is that they have a lot on their health,” Nasr said, referring to the competition with China and Russia, the coronavirus epidemic and America’s tense domestic politics. “They would like the Middle East to be less important, but the current policy approach gives Iran the way to make the Middle East more problematic.”

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